Electric cars will surpass petrol vehicle sales in the UK by 2028, Cox Automotive reports in its latest market forecast.
The automotive analyst’s four-year outlook highlights EV sales growth of 560% since 2020, marking significant shifts in the UK car market.
EVs are projected to capture 36% of new car sales by 2028, overtaking petrol at 30%. However, this falls short of the government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate target of 52%.
While electric vehicles now outsell diesel and hybrid models, they remain behind petrol cars. Current market data shows petrol vehicles hold 50% of new registrations, with EVs at 21%.
The market has seen dramatic shifts since 2020:
• Diesel sales dropped 76% to just 6% market share
• Petrol sales declined by 1.4 million units — a 26.61% reduction
• EV sales increased more than five-fold
“The next four years will remain volatile as the sector adapts to economic headwinds and ever-evolving consumer demands,” said Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive. “We will continue to bear witness to the rise of new manufacturers, including those from China and other international markets, while incumbent manufacturers adjust their in-market strategies.”
Consumer research by Cox Automotive reveals ongoing hesitation about EV adoption. The study found 69% of drivers won’t pay more for an electric vehicle compared to petrol or diesel alternatives.
The research also showed 86% of drivers want increased government incentives to encourage EV purchases.
Reports suggest the government may introduce new EV subsidies, including potential zero-interest loans, to boost private buyer interest in electric vehicles.
